{"id":243218,"date":"2025-07-01T22:31:39","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T05:31:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/walton.com\/?p=243218"},"modified":"2026-10-23T00:21:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T07:21:57","slug":"the-next-move-lowering-federal-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/walton.com\/tc\/the-next-move-lowering-federal-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u806f\u90a6\u5229\u7387\u7684\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f91"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p2\">\u5f9e\u75ab\u60c5\u523a\u6fc0\u5230\u653f\u7b56\u7dca\u7e2e<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">2020\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u96a8\u8457COVID-19\u885d\u64ca\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u4ee4\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9677\u5165\u505c\u9813\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c40\u8fc5\u901f\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e26\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u53ca\u7a69\u5b9a\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7dca\u6025\u63aa\u65bd\u6709\u52a9\u907f\u514d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9677\u5165\u9577\u671f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u70ba2021\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u958b\u59cb\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u57cb\u4e0b\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">\u81ea2022\u5e74\u521d\u81f32023\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c55\u958b\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u9032\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u5c07\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u75310.25%\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f3<b>5.25%\u20135.50%<\/b>\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u6b64\u8209\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u5168\u529b\u58d3\u4f4e2022\u5e74\u4e00\u5ea6\u885d\u78349%\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\uff0c\u4e26\u6062\u5fa9\u7269\u50f9\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u653f\u7b56\u986f\u8457\u4fc3\u4f7f\u901a\u8139\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u5e02\u5834\u9663\u75db\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff1b<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u4fe1\u8cb8\u689d\u4ef6\u6536\u7dca\uff1b\u53ca<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u6182\u616e\u589e\u52a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p2\">2024\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u901a\u8139\u653e\u7de9\u53ca\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u958b\u59cb\u8f49\u5411\u30029\u6708\u53ca11\u6708\u5169\u6b21\u6e1b\u606f\u5f8c\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u65bc\u5e74\u5e95\u964d\u81f3<b>4.50%\u20134.75%<\/b>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e74\u521d\u901a\u8139\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u9811\u56fa\uff0c\u4ee4\u9032\u5c55\u505c\u6eef\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u63a1\u53d6\u300c\u89c0\u671b\u300d\u614b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u57282025\u5e747\u6708\u5e95\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40<b>\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e03\u6b21\u6703\u8b70<\/b>\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u65bc4.25%\u20134.50%\uff0c\u9019\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u5118\u7ba1\u6574\u9ad4\u901a\u8139\u8da8\u52e2\u5411\u597d\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5728\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u5bec\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u524d\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u7372\u53d6<b>\u66f4\u660e\u78ba\u4e14\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u6578\u64da<\/b>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"p4\"><strong>\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u6e1b\u606f\u662f\u5426\u5373\u5c07\u4f86\u81e8\uff1f<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u96a8\u8457\u901a\u8139\u9010\u6b65\u9760\u5411\u7f8e\u806f\u51322% \u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a GDP \u589e\u9577\u51fa\u73fe\u653e\u7de9\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7126\u9ede\u5df2\u5168\u9762\u8f49\u5411\uff1a<b>\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5c07\u65bc\u4f55\u6642\u3001\u4ee5\u591a\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u91cd\u555f\u964d\u606f\uff1f<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p6\">\u901a\u8139\u5c55\u671b\uff1a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u504f\u597d\u7684\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u6838\u5fc3\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578 (Core PCE) \u65bc2025\u5e746\u6708\u70ba2.8%\uff0c\u82075\u6708\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u8f032023\u5e74\u521d\u76845.4%\u660e\u986f\u56de\u843d\u3002\u82e5\u901a\u8139\u56de\u843d\u8da8\u52e2\u5f97\u4ee5\u5ef6\u7e8c\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u666e\u904d\u9810\u4f30\u964d\u606f\u7a97\u53e3\u5c07\u65bc 2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6b63\u5f0f\u958b\u555f\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff1a\u671f\u8ca8\u5e02\u5834\u76ee\u524d\u9810\u8a089\u6708\u81f3\u5c11\u6e1b\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba85%\u201390%\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u671f\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u518d\u6e1b\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u5e74\u6216\u5408\u5171\u6e1b\u606f50\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u76e3\u7ba1\u4e8b\u52d9\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d Michelle Bowman \u751a\u81f3\u66fe\u63d0\u51fa2025\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u6e1b\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\u3002\u5c55\u671b2026\u5e74\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u504f\u9d3f\u6d3e\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u6216\u65bc\u5e74\u4e2d\u8dcc\u81f33.5%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8a55\u8ad6\uff1aFOMC \u6210\u54e1\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5f37\u8abf\u4ee5\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u4f9d\u64da\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u9700\u53d6\u5f97\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u9032\u5c55\uff0c\u4e26\u9700\u78ba\u8a8d\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5f37\u97cc\u8868\u73fe\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u6b21\u63a8\u9ad8\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u53cd\u61c9\uff1a\u806f\u5132\u5c407\u6708\u5e95\u6703\u8b70\u5f8c\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5347\u81f3\u7d044.37%\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u6b0a\u8861\u9b91\u5a01\u723e (Powell) \u5c0d\u901a\u8139\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5be9\u614e\u8a00\u8ad6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63GDP\u589e\u9577\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">\u5118\u7ba1\u6642\u6a5f\u4ecd\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u65b9\u5411\u65e5\u6f38\u6e05\u6670\uff1a<b>\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6e1b\u606f<\/b>\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u53ea\u5728\u65bc\u4f55\u6642\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"p3\"><strong>\u9019\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e36\u4f86\u751a\u9ebc\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u964d\u606f\u5c07\u6709\u6548\u91cb\u653e\u88ab\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u58d3\u6291\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u57df\u6d3b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>GDP\u8207\u6d88\u8cbb<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5be6\u8ceaGDP\u589e\u95773%\uff0c\u82072025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u4e26\u9ad8\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u6309\u5e74\u4e0a\u53471.4%\uff0c\u8f03\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u9304\u5f97\u76840.5%\u4f4e\u8ff7\u589e\u9577\u660e\u986f\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u5c31\u696d\u589e\u9577\u7dad\u6301\u6eab\u548c\u4f46\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u7d044.2%\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u6839\u64da Atlanta Fed\u2019s Wage Growth Tracker\uff0c7\u6708\u85aa\u8cc7\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u81f34.1%\u3002\u96d6\u8f03\u4e0a\u6708\u7a0d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u52de\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u4ecd\u9762\u5c0d\u4e0a\u884c\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u901a\u8139\u8d70\u52e2\u53ca\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u4ee5\u5b73\u606f\u66f2\u7dda\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u8870\u9000\u6a5f\u7387\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4f30\u8a08\u672a\u4f8612\u500b\u6708\u51fa\u73fe\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba28%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u903e50%\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u79c1\u71df\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u4ecd\u7136\u5206\u6b67\uff1aGoldman Sachs \u53ca Barclays \u5df2\u4e0b\u8abf\u8870\u9000\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u800c S&amp;P Global \u53ca The Conference Board \u5247\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8b66\u544a2026\u5e74\u521d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u6536\u7e2e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7576\u524d\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u5728\u65bc\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u9632\u6b62\u901a\u8139\u53cd\u5f48\u8207\u907f\u514d\u7d93\u6fdf\u505c\u6eef\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u7cbe\u6e96\u628a\u63e1\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u7684\u9ec3\u91d1\u6642\u6a5f\u3002\u5728\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u5177\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u964d\u606f\u8209\u63aa\uff0c\u4ea6\u80fd\u70ba\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u3001\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u53ca\u6574\u9ad4\u8cc7\u672c\u5e02\u5834\u5e36\u4f86\u5be6\u8cea\u6027\u7684\u5598\u606f\u7a7a\u9593\u8207\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u7d13\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4 class=\"p3\"><strong>\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\uff1a\u91cb\u653e\u58d3\u6291\u5df2\u4e45\u7684\u7f6e\u696d\u9700\u6c42<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u623f\u5730\u7522\u662f\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u5316\u6700\u70ba\u654f\u611f\u7684\u7522\u696d\uff0c\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e09\u5e74\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u96a8\u8457\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u8ddf\u96a8\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u653f\u7b56\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u53ef\u8ca0\u64d4\u6027\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u623f\u6e90\u4f9b\u61c9\u53d7\u58d3\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u623f\u5e02\u6b63\u8fce\u4f86<b>\u9031\u671f\u6027\u91cd\u6574<\/b>\u7684\u5927\u597d\u6642\u6a5f\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u8207\u4f4f\u623f\u53ef\u8ca0\u64d4\u6027<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u6839\u64da Freddie Mac\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u622a\u81f37\u670831\u65e5\uff0c30\u5e74\u671f\u5b9a\u606f\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u5e73\u5747\u70ba6.72%\uff0c\u8f032023\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd18%\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u82e5\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u6e1b\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9810\u671f\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u6216\u65bc2026\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u56de\u843d\u81f35.75%\u20136.25%\u5340\u9593\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u6bcf\u4e0b\u964d100\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u53ef\u8ca0\u64d4\u6027\u7d04\u53ef\u63d0\u9ad810%\uff0c\u64f4\u5927\u7b26\u5408\u8cc7\u683c\u8cb7\u5bb6\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u5728\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e02\u5834\u4ee4\u6bcf\u6708\u4f9b\u6b3e\u6e1b\u5c11\u6578\u767e\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n<li 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Labor Statistics, July 2025 Employment Summary | Freddie Mac PMMS Data, July 2025 | John Burns Research &amp; Consulting, Mortgage Affordability Tracker | National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), HMI Survey \u2013 July 2025 | CoreLogic Land Price Index, 2020\u20132024 | MSCI Real Assets Quarterly Trends Report, 2025 | The Conference Board, Leading Economic Index, June 2025 | Goldman Sachs &amp; Barclays U.S. Outlooks, June 2025 | U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates, July 2025 | Preqin &amp; NCREIF Institutional Allocations to Real Assets \u2013 Midyear 2025 | Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Housing Supply Report 2024 | Realtor.com | Housing Supply Gap Reaches Nearly 4 Million in 2024<\/p>\n<p 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