{"id":243216,"date":"2025-06-01T22:30:26","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T05:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/walton.com\/?p=243216"},"modified":"2026-10-23T00:21:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T07:21:57","slug":"what-impact-does-a-u-s-recession-have-on-land-housing-long-term-real-estate-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/walton.com\/tc\/what-impact-does-a-u-s-recession-have-on-land-housing-long-term-real-estate-investments\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5c0d\u571f\u5730\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u53ca\u9577\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u6295\u8cc7\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">\u7d93\u6fdf\u8a0a\u865f\u986f\u793a\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u5834\u770b\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u5206\u6b67<\/p>\n<p>\u622a\u81f32025\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u53ca\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u63a5\u8fd1\u8870\u9000\u3002\u5b73\u606f\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u3001\u4fe1\u8cb8\u689d\u4ef6\u6536\u7dca\u53ca\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u5747\u52a0\u5287\u5e02\u5834\u6182\u616e\u3002\u7528\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e26\u5ee3\u53d7\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u7d9c\u5408\u6307\u6a19 The Conference Board \u9818\u5148\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6578\uff08LEI\uff09\uff0c\u65bc4\u6708\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u4e94\u500b\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff1b\u5f9e\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u9a57\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9019\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7dad\u6301\u5229\u7387\u300c\u8f03\u9ad8\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5c0d\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u53ca\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u69cb\u6210\u660e\u986f\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6a19\u4ea6\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u8cb8\u606f\u5dee\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u53d6\u5411\u8f49\u8da8\u5be9\u614e<\/li>\n<li>\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b78\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6578\u8f49\u5f31<\/li>\n<li>2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63GDP\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u81f30.8%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc2024\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u76842.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u6240\u6709\u6578\u64da\u5747\u6307\u5411\u7d93\u6fdf\u5373\u5c07\u6536\u7e2e\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u6a21\u578b\u53ca\u6a5f\u69cb\u63d0\u51fa\u8f03\u70ba\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u6a5f\u7387\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee510\u5e74\u671f\u82073\u500b\u6708\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08\u622a\u81f32026\u5e74\u521d\u51fa\u73fe\u8870\u9000\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u7565\u4f4e\u65bc30%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs \u56e0\u61c9\u8cbf\u6613\u95dc\u4fc2\u6539\u5584\u53ca\u7f8e\u4e2d\u95dc\u7a05\u66ab\u6642\u4f11\u6230\uff0c\u5c07\u8870\u9000\u6a5f\u7387\u753145%\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f330%\u3002\u8a72\u884c\u76ee\u524d\u9810\u6e2c2025\u5e74GDP\u6eab\u548c\u589e\u9577\u7d041%\uff0c\u4e26\u9810\u671f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6700\u5feb\u53ef\u80fd\u65bc12\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Barclays \u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u66f4\u70ba\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u5354\u8b70\u9054\u6210\u5f8c\u8868\u793a\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u300c\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53ef\u80fd\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u5c072025\u5e74GDP\u9810\u6e2c\u7531\u6536\u7e2e\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f3\u589e\u95770.5%\uff0c\u9810\u671f2026\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u52a0\u5feb\u81f31.6%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4e9e\u7279\u862d\u5927\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c (Atlanta Fed) GDPNow \u6a21\u578b\u9810\u6e2c2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5be6\u8ceaGDP\u589e\u95773.5%\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u5b63\u5ea6\u589e\u9577\u4ecb\u4e4e2%\u81f33%\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u300c\u91d1\u9aee\u5973\u5b69\u5340\u9593\uff08Goldilocks Zone\uff09\u300d\uff0c\u65e2\u8db3\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u7d93\u6fdf\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u81f3\u65bc\u5f15\u767c\u904e\u71b1\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u5e02\u5834\u5c55\u671b\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u98a8\u96aa\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u504f\u9ad8\u3001\u95dc\u7a05\u5f71\u97ff\u6301\u7e8c\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8f49\u5f31\u53ca\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u5b63\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5c0d\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u4e00\u822c\u4ee5\u672c\u5730\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u6642\u671f\u754c\u5b9a\uff0c\u800cGDP\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u570b\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u6700\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u5178\u578b\u8870\u9000\u6703\u4ee4\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7522\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5546\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u653e\u7de9\u3002\u5efa\u7bc9\u53ca\u5bb6\u5c45\u7528\u54c1\u7b49\u4f4f\u623f\u76f8\u95dc\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6d3b\u52d5\u5f80\u5f80\u77ed\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u79df\u8cc3\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u901a\u5e38\u7dad\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\u751a\u81f3\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u904e\u5f80\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GDP\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u7e2e\u7d042.5%<\/li>\n<li>2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u671f\u9593\uff0cGDP\u5728\u516d\u500b\u5b63\u5ea6\u5167\u4e0b\u964d\u903e4.3%<\/li>\n<li>2020\u5e74\u75ab\u60c5\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63GDP\u6309\u5e74\u7387\u8a08\u6536\u7e2e9.1%\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u5f48<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u622a\u81f32025\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63GDP\u589e\u9577\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u4ecd\u7136\u5206\u6b67\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e9e\u7279\u862d\u5927\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c GDPNow \u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8a08\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u9577\u90543.5%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u5177\u97cc\u6027\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u79c1\u4eba\u6295\u8cc7\u5e36\u52d5<\/li>\n<li>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8cbb\u57ce\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c (Philadelphia Fed) \u7684\u5c08\u696d\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u8abf\u67e5\u9810\u8a08\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u589e\u95771.5%\uff0c\u5168\u5e74\u589e\u95771.4%\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u8f49\u5f31\u53ca\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8cbb\u6e1b\u5c11<\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P Global Ratings \u9810\u8a082025\u5e74\u5168\u5e74\u589e\u95771.9%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u589e\u9577\u52d5\u529b\u653e\u7de9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u9019\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9810\u6e2c\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5728\u8a55\u4f302025\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u6642\u4ecd\u9762\u5c0d\u76f8\u7576\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff1a\u5728\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa\u4e2d\u5c0b\u6c42\u5e73\u8861<\/p>\n<p>\u57282025\u5e745\u6708\u7684FOMC\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b98\u54e1\u5c0d\u6eef\u8139\u98a8\u96aa\u65e5\u76ca\u95dc\u6ce8\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u5347\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u540c\u6642\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u95dc\u7a05\u3001\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u53ca\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8f49\u5f31\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5287\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5167\u90e8\u5c0d\u9069\u7576\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u7dad\u6301\u5728<strong>4.25%\u81f34.50%<\/strong>\u5340\u9593\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u6b63\u5bc6\u5207\u95dc\u6ce82025\u5e74\u7a0d\u5f8c\u6642\u9593\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5f37\u8abf\u5c07<strong>\u4ee5\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u4f9d\u64da<\/strong>\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u5747\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u6301\u7e8c\u653e\u7de9\u53ca\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u6e1b\u8f15\u7684\u660e\u78ba\u8de1\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6301\u7e8c\u901a\u8139\u8207\u589e\u9577\u8f49\u5f31\u9019\u5169\u80a1\u76f8\u53cd\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee4\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u66f4\u96e3\u5728\u6291\u5236\u7269\u50f9\u58d3\u529b\u8207\u652f\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u4e4b\u9593\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u900f\u904e\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6e1b\u8f15\u8870\u9000\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u626e\u6f14\u95dc\u9375\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u6536\u7e2e\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e00\u822c\u6703\u4e0b\u8abf\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u501f\u8cb8\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u53ca\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u6b77\u53f2\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6bcf\u9022\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5747\u5927\u5e45\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u5e45\u5ea6\u901a\u5e38\u4ecb\u4e4e400\u81f3500\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u8003\u91cf\uff1a\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4ea6\u53ef\u63a1\u7528\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06\uff08QE\uff09\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e26\u66fe\u65bc2008\u5e74\u5f8c\u53caCOVID-19\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\u5ee3\u6cdb\u904b\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e02\u5834\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e\u9577\u671f\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<li>2025\u5e74\u5c55\u671b\uff1a\u5118\u7ba1\u901a\u8139\u4ecd\u9ad8\u65bc\u806f\u5132\u5c402%\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u7d93\u6fdf\u6025\u5287\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u8f49\u5411\u5bec\u9b06\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6839\u64da2025\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff09\u6703\u8b70\u7d00\u8981\uff0c\u5b98\u54e1\u4ecd\u4ee5\u6578\u64da\u70ba\u4f9d\u64da\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u627f\u8a8d\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u9762\u5c0d\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98a8\u96aa\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u82e5\u7d93\u6fdf\u74b0\u5883\u60e1\u5316\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u70ba2025\u5e74\u5e95\u62162026\u5e74\u521d\u6e1b\u606f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7406\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u6b77\u53f2\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u623f\u5730\u7522\u53ca\u4f4f\u623f\u5728\u904e\u5f80\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\u7684\u8868\u73fe<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\u81ea\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7d93\u6b7713\u6b21\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6301\u7e8c\u7d0410\u500b\u6708\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u901a\u5e38\u4ee4\u5c31\u696d\u3001GDP\u53ca\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u5229\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u7522\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4f4f\u623f\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6578\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u5747\u5c55\u73fe\u4e00\u5b9a\u97cc\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u904e\u53bb8\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\uff0c\u67097\u6b21\u623f\u50f9\u7dad\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\u6216\u9304\u5f97\u4e0a\u5347\uff1b2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u662f\u660e\u986f\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\u904e\u5ea6\u69d3\u687f\u53ca\u6295\u6a5f\u6027\u904e\u5ea6\u8208\u5efa\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6536\u7e2e\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u539f\u59cb\u571f\u5730\u50f9\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u77ed\u671f\u504f\u8edf\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u6062\u5fa9\uff0c\u9ad8\u589e\u9577\u90fd\u6703\u5340<strong>\u5df2\u53d6\u5f97\u958b\u767c\u5be9\u6279\u7684\u571f\u5730\u901a\u5e38\u8f03\u5feb\u5fa9\u7526<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4f4f\u5b85\u50f9\u503c\u5916\uff0c<strong>\u79c1\u4eba\u623f\u5730\u7522\u6295\u8cc7\u5728\u8870\u9000\u671f\u9593\u53ca\u5176\u5f8c\u7684\u8868\u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Freddie Mac 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