{"id":243216,"date":"2025-06-01T22:30:26","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T05:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/walton.com\/?p=243216"},"modified":"2026-11-03T20:58:41","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T03:58:41","slug":"what-impact-does-a-u-s-recession-have-on-land-housing-long-term-real-estate-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/walton.com\/sc\/what-impact-does-a-u-s-recession-have-on-land-housing-long-term-real-estate-investments\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5bf9\u571f\u5730\u3001\u4f4f\u623f\u53ca\u957f\u671f\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8baf\u53f7\u663e\u793a\u7f8e\u56fd\u53ef\u80fd\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u573a\u770b\u6cd5\u4ecd\u7136\u5206\u6b67<\/p>\n<p>\u622a\u81f32025\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u6108\u6765\u6108\u591a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u53ca\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8b66\u544a\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u63a5\u8fd1\u8870\u9000\u3002\u5b73\u606f\u66f2\u7ebf\u5012\u6302\u3001\u4fe1\u8d37\u6761\u4ef6\u6536\u7d27\u53ca\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u5747\u52a0\u5267\u5e02\u573a\u5fe7\u8651\u3002\u7528\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u5e76\u5e7f\u53d7\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6807 The Conference Board \u9886\u5148\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6307\u6570\uff08LEI\uff09\uff0c\u4e8e4\u6708\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e94\u4e2a\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff1b\u4ece\u5386\u53f2\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0b\u884c\u7684\u53ef\u9760\u6307\u6807\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7ef4\u6301\u5229\u7387\u300c\u8f83\u9ad8\u66f4\u4e45\u300d\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bf9\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u53ca\u4f01\u4e1a\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6784\u6210\u660e\u663e\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6807\u4ea6\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u4f01\u4e1a\u4fe1\u8d37\u606f\u5dee\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u53d6\u5411\u8f6c\u8d8b\u5ba1\u614e<\/li>\n<li>\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6570\u8f6c\u5f31<\/li>\n<li>2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63GDP\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u81f30.8%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e2024\u5e74\u7b2c\u56db\u5b63\u76842.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u6570\u636e\u5747\u6307\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5373\u5c06\u6536\u7f29\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u6a21\u578b\u53ca\u673a\u6784\u63d0\u51fa\u8f83\u4e3a\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u5c55\u671b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u50a8\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u8870\u9000\u673a\u7387\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee510\u5e74\u671f\u4e0e3\u4e2a\u6708\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u622a\u81f32026\u5e74\u521d\u51fa\u73b0\u8870\u9000\u7684\u673a\u7387\u7565\u4f4e\u4e8e30%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs \u56e0\u5e94\u8d38\u6613\u5173\u7cfb\u6539\u5584\u53ca\u7f8e\u4e2d\u5173\u7a0e\u6682\u65f6\u4f11\u6218\uff0c\u5c06\u8870\u9000\u673a\u7387\u753145%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f330%\u3002\u8be5\u884c\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u6d4b2025\u5e74GDP\u6e29\u548c\u589e\u957f\u7ea61%\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u671f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u6700\u5feb\u53ef\u80fd\u4e8e12\u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u606f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Barclays \u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e50\u89c2\uff0c\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u534f\u8bae\u8fbe\u6210\u540e\u8868\u793a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u300c\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u53ef\u80fd\u300d\uff0c\u5e76\u5c062025\u5e74GDP\u9884\u6d4b\u7531\u6536\u7f29\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3\u589e\u957f0.5%\uff0c\u9884\u671f2026\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u52a0\u5feb\u81f31.6%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4e9a\u7279\u5170\u5927\u8054\u50a8\u94f6\u884c (Atlanta Fed) GDPNow \u6a21\u578b\u9884\u6d4b2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5b9e\u8d28GDP\u589e\u957f3.5%\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u53c2\u8003\uff0c\u5b63\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u4ecb\u4e4e2%\u81f33%\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u89c6\u4e3a\u300c\u91d1\u53d1\u5973\u5b69\u533a\u95f4\uff08Goldilocks Zone\uff09\u300d\uff0c\u65e2\u8db3\u4ee5\u53cd\u6620\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6269\u5f20\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u81f3\u4e8e\u5f15\u53d1\u8fc7\u70ed\u98ce\u9669\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e02\u573a\u5c55\u671b\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u90e8\u5206\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u7ee7\u7eed\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u504f\u9ad8\u3001\u5173\u7a0e\u5f71\u54cd\u6301\u7eed\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u8f6c\u5f31\u53ca\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5b63\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5bf9\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u4e00\u822c\u4ee5\u672c\u5730\u751f\u4ea7\u603b\u503c\uff08GDP\uff09\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u754c\u5b9a\uff0c\u800cGDP\u662f\u8861\u91cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u6307\u6807\u3002\u5178\u578b\u8870\u9000\u4f1a\u4ee4\u5de5\u4e1a\u751f\u4ea7\u3001\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u5546\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u5efa\u7b51\u53ca\u5bb6\u5c45\u7528\u54c1\u7b49\u4f4f\u623f\u76f8\u5173\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u5f80\u5f80\u77ed\u671f\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u79df\u8d41\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u901a\u5e38\u7ef4\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u751a\u81f3\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8fc7\u5f80\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GDP\u5e73\u5747\u6536\u7f29\u7ea62.5%<\/li>\n<li>2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u671f\u95f4\uff0cGDP\u5728\u516d\u4e2a\u5b63\u5ea6\u5185\u4e0b\u964d\u903e4.3%<\/li>\n<li>2020\u5e74\u75ab\u60c5\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63GDP\u6309\u5e74\u7387\u8ba1\u6536\u7f299.1%\uff0c\u5176\u540e\u5927\u5e45\u53cd\u5f39<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u622a\u81f32025\u5e746\u6708\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63GDP\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ecd\u7136\u5206\u6b67\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5982\u4e0a\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4e9a\u7279\u5170\u5927\u8054\u50a8\u94f6\u884c GDPNow \u6a21\u578b\u4f30\u8ba1\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u957f\u8fbe3.5%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u5177\u97e7\u6027\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u53ca\u79c1\u4eba\u6295\u8d44\u5e26\u52a8<\/li>\n<li>\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u8d39\u57ce\u8054\u50a8\u94f6\u884c (Philadelphia Fed) \u7684\u4e13\u4e1a\u9884\u6d4b\u8005\u8c03\u67e5\u9884\u8ba1\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u589e\u957f1.5%\uff0c\u5168\u5e74\u589e\u957f1.4%\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u8f6c\u5f31\u53ca\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8d39\u51cf\u5c11<\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P Global Ratings \u9884\u8ba12025\u5e74\u5168\u5e74\u589e\u957f1.9%\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u589e\u957f\u52a8\u529b\u653e\u7f13<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u9884\u6d4b\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5728\u8bc4\u4f302025\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u65f6\u4ecd\u9762\u5bf9\u76f8\u5f53\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff1a\u5728\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\u4e2d\u5bfb\u6c42\u5e73\u8861<\/p>\n<p>\u57282025\u5e745\u6708\u7684FOMC\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u5b98\u5458\u5bf9\u6ede\u80c0\u98ce\u9669\u65e5\u76ca\u5173\u6ce8\uff0c\u5373\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u5347\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u540c\u65f6\u51fa\u73b0\u3002\u5173\u7a0e\u3001\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u53ca\u6d88\u8d39\u9700\u6c42\u8f6c\u5f31\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5267\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5185\u90e8\u5bf9\u9002\u5f53\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u7ef4\u6301\u5728<strong>4.25%\u81f34.50%<\/strong>\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce82025\u5e74\u7a0d\u540e\u65f6\u95f4\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u51cf\u606f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5f3a\u8c03\u5c06<strong>\u4ee5\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e<\/strong>\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u5747\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6301\u7eed\u653e\u7f13\u53ca\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u51cf\u8f7b\u7684\u660e\u786e\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6301\u7eed\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u589e\u957f\u8f6c\u5f31\u8fd9\u4e24\u80a1\u76f8\u53cd\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u4ee4\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u66f4\u96be\u5728\u6291\u5236\u7269\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u4e0e\u652f\u6301\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u53d6\u5f97\u5e73\u8861\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u900f\u8fc7\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u51cf\u8f7b\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\uff0c\u626e\u6f14\u5173\u952e\u89d2\u8272\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4e00\u822c\u4f1a\u4e0b\u8c03\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u501f\u8d37\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u53ca\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u5386\u53f2\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u81ea1980\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u6bcf\u9022\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u5747\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u606f\uff0c\u5e45\u5ea6\u901a\u5e38\u4ecb\u4e4e400\u81f3500\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u8d44\u4ea7\u8d1f\u503a\u8868\u8003\u91cf\uff1a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u4ea6\u53ef\u91c7\u7528\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\uff08QE\uff09\u7b49\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u5e76\u66fe\u4e8e2008\u5e74\u540e\u53caCOVID-19\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u8fd0\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u7a33\u5b9a\u5e02\u573a\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e\u957f\u671f\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n<li>2025\u5e74\u5c55\u671b\uff1a\u5c3d\u7ba1\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u9ad8\u4e8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c402%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6025\u5267\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981\u8f6c\u5411\u5bbd\u677e\uff0c\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u6839\u636e2025\u5e743\u6708\u7684\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff09\u4f1a\u8bae\u7eaa\u8981\uff0c\u5b98\u5458\u4ecd\u4ee5\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u627f\u8ba4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u9762\u5bf9\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u98ce\u9669\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u82e5\u7ecf\u6d4e\u73af\u5883\u6076\u5316\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4e3a2025\u5e74\u5e95\u62162026\u5e74\u521d\u51cf\u606f\u63d0\u4f9b\u7406\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u5386\u53f2\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53ca\u4f4f\u623f\u5728\u8fc7\u5f80\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u8868\u73b0<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\u81ea\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7ecf\u538613\u6b21\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6301\u7eed\u7ea610\u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u867d\u7136\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\u901a\u5e38\u4ee4\u5c31\u4e1a\u3001GDP\u53ca\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4f46\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4f4f\u623f\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\u5747\u5c55\u73b0\u4e00\u5b9a\u97e7\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb8\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u4e2d\uff0c\u67097\u6b21\u623f\u4ef7\u7ef4\u6301\u7a33\u5b9a\u6216\u5f55\u5f97\u4e0a\u5347\uff1b2008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u662f\u660e\u663e\u4f8b\u5916\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u5305\u62ec\u8fc7\u5ea6\u6760\u6746\u53ca\u6295\u673a\u6027\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5174\u5efa\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u539f\u59cb\u571f\u5730\u4ef7\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u77ed\u671f\u504f\u8f6f\uff1b\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u8457\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u6062\u590d\uff0c\u9ad8\u589e\u957f\u90fd\u4f1a\u533a<strong>\u5df2\u53d6\u5f97\u5f00\u53d1\u5ba1\u6279\u7684\u571f\u5730\u901a\u5e38\u8f83\u5feb\u590d\u82cf<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4f4f\u5b85\u4ef7\u503c\u5916\uff0c<strong>\u79c1\u4eba\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u5728\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\u53ca\u5176\u540e\u7684\u8868\u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Freddie Mac 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