{"id":240738,"date":"2025-07-01T22:31:39","date_gmt":"2025-07-02T05:31:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/walton.com\/?p=243218"},"modified":"2026-11-03T20:58:36","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T03:58:36","slug":"the-next-move-lowering-federal-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/walton.com\/sc\/the-next-move-lowering-federal-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u8054\u90a6\u5229\u7387\u7684\u964d\u606f\u8def\u5f84"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p2\">\u4ece\u75ab\u60c5\u523a\u6fc0\u5230\u653f\u7b56\u7d27\u7f29<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">2020\u5e743\u6708\uff0c\u968f\u8457COVID-19\u51b2\u51fb\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u5e76\u4ee4\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9677\u5165\u505c\u987f\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u5c40\u8fc5\u901f\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u63a8\u51fa\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u91cf\u5316\u5bbd\u677e\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u53ca\u7a33\u5b9a\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7d27\u6025\u63aa\u65bd\u6709\u52a9\u907f\u514d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9677\u5165\u957f\u671f\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u4e3a2021\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u5f00\u59cb\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u57cb\u4e0b\u4f0f\u7b14\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">\u81ea2022\u5e74\u521d\u81f32023\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5c55\u5f00\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u8fdb\u53d6\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u5c06\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u75310.25%\u4e0a\u8c03\u81f3<b>5.25%\u20135.50%<\/b>\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u6b64\u4e3e\u76ee\u6807\u660e\u786e\uff1a\u5168\u529b\u538b\u4f4e2022\u5e74\u4e00\u5ea6\u51b2\u78349%\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u6062\u590d\u7269\u4ef7\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u653f\u7b56\u663e\u8457\u4fc3\u4f7f\u901a\u80c0\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u9635\u75db\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u501f\u8d37\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff1b<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u4fe1\u8d37\u6761\u4ef6\u6536\u7d27\uff1b\u53ca<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u5fe7\u8651\u589e\u52a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p2\">2024\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\uff0c\u968f\u8457\u901a\u80c0\u653e\u7f13\u53ca\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5f00\u59cb\u8f6c\u5411\u30029\u6708\u53ca11\u6708\u4e24\u6b21\u51cf\u606f\u540e\uff0c\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e8e\u5e74\u5e95\u964d\u81f3<b>4.50%\u20134.75%<\/b>\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e74\u521d\u901a\u80c0\u8f83\u9884\u671f\u987d\u56fa\uff0c\u4ee4\u8fdb\u5c55\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u91c7\u53d6\u300c\u89c2\u671b\u300d\u6001\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\u57282025\u5e747\u6708\u5e95\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u8054\u50a8\u5c40<b>\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c\u4e03\u6b21\u4f1a\u8bae<\/b>\u5c06\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7ef4\u6301\u4e8e4.25%\u20134.50%\uff0c\u8fd9\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6574\u4f53\u901a\u80c0\u8d8b\u52bf\u5411\u597d\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u5728\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u5bbd\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u524d\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u83b7\u53d6<b>\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u4e14\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\u6570\u636e<\/b>\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"p4\"><strong>\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\uff1a\u51cf\u606f\u662f\u5426\u5373\u5c06\u6765\u4e34\uff1f<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"p5\">\u968f\u8457\u901a\u80c0\u9010\u6b65\u9760\u5411\u7f8e\u8054\u50a82% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a GDP \u589e\u957f\u51fa\u73b0\u653e\u7f13\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u7126\u70b9\u5df2\u5168\u9762\u8f6c\u5411\uff1a<b>\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5c06\u4e8e\u4f55\u65f6\u3001\u4ee5\u591a\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u91cd\u542f\u964d\u606f\uff1f<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p6\">\u901a\u80c0\u5c55\u671b\uff1a\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u504f\u597d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u6307\u6807\u6838\u5fc3\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u652f\u51fa\u7269\u4ef7\u6307\u6570 (Core PCE) \u4e8e2025\u5e746\u6708\u4e3a2.8%\uff0c\u4e0e5\u6708\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u8f832023\u5e74\u521d\u76845.4%\u660e\u663e\u56de\u843d\u3002\u82e5\u901a\u80c0\u56de\u843d\u8d8b\u52bf\u5f97\u4ee5\u5ef6\u7eed\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u9884\u4f30\u964d\u606f\u7a97\u53e3\u5c06\u4e8e 2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6b63\u5f0f\u5f00\u542f\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff1a\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u76ee\u524d\u9884\u8ba19\u6708\u81f3\u5c11\u51cf\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u673a\u7387\u4e3a85%\u201390%\uff0c\u5e76\u9884\u671f\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u518d\u51cf\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c2025\u5e74\u5168\u5e74\u6216\u5408\u5171\u51cf\u606f50\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u76d1\u7ba1\u4e8b\u52a1\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d Michelle Bowman \u751a\u81f3\u66fe\u63d0\u51fa2025\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u53ef\u80fd\u51cf\u606f\u4e09\u6b21\u3002\u5c55\u671b2026\u5e74\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u504f\u9e3d\u6d3e\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u6216\u4e8e\u5e74\u4e2d\u8dcc\u81f33.5%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p2\">\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u8bc4\u8bba\uff1aFOMC \u6210\u5458\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f3a\u8c03\u4ee5\u6570\u636e\u4e3a\u4f9d\u636e\uff0c\u6307\u51fa\u901a\u80c0\u4ecd\u9700\u53d6\u5f97\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u8fdb\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u9700\u786e\u8ba4\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u5f3a\u97e7\u8868\u73b0\u4e0d\u4f1a\u518d\u6b21\u63a8\u9ad8\u7269\u4ef7\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u503a\u5238\u5e02\u573a\u53cd\u5e94\uff1a\u8054\u50a8\u5c407\u6708\u5e95\u4f1a\u8bae\u540e\uff0c10\u5e74\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u56fd\u503a\u6b96\u5229\u7387\u5347\u81f3\u7ea64.37%\uff0c\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u6743\u8861\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14 (Powell) \u5bf9\u901a\u80c0\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u7a33\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5ba1\u614e\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8f83\u9884\u671f\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63GDP\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p2\">\u5c3d\u7ba1\u65f6\u673a\u4ecd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\uff0c\u4f46\u65b9\u5411\u65e5\u6e10\u6e05\u6670\uff1a<b>\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u51cf\u606f<\/b>\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u53ea\u5728\u4e8e\u4f55\u65f6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"p3\"><strong>\u8fd9\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u6574\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5e26\u6765\u751a\u4e48\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"p4\">\u964d\u606f\u5c06\u6709\u6548\u91ca\u653e\u88ab\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u538b\u6291\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9886\u57df\u6d3b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>GDP\u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5b9e\u8d28GDP\u589e\u957f3%\uff0c\u4e0e2025\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u5e76\u9ad8\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u9884\u671f\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u6309\u5e74\u4e0a\u53471.4%\uff0c\u8f83\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5f55\u5f97\u76840.5%\u4f4e\u8ff7\u589e\u957f\u660e\u663e\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>\u52b3\u52a8\u5e02\u573a<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u5c31\u4e1a\u589e\u957f\u7ef4\u6301\u6e29\u548c\u4f46\u7a33\u5b9a\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u7ea64.2%\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u6839\u636e Atlanta Fed\u2019s Wage Growth Tracker\uff0c7\u6708\u85aa\u8d44\u589e\u957f\u653e\u7f13\u81f34.1%\u3002\u867d\u8f83\u4e0a\u6708\u7a0d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\uff0c\u663e\u793a\u52b3\u5de5\u6210\u672c\u4ecd\u9762\u5bf9\u4e0a\u884c\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u901a\u80c0\u8d70\u52bf\u53ca\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u524d\u666f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\"><strong>\u8870\u9000\u98ce\u9669<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u7ebd\u7ea6\u8054\u50a8\u94f6\u884c\u4ee5\u5b73\u606f\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u7684\u8870\u9000\u673a\u7387\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4f30\u8ba1\u672a\u676512\u4e2a\u6708\u51fa\u73b0\u8870\u9000\u7684\u673a\u7387\u4e3a28%\uff0c\u4f4e\u4e8e\u53bb\u5e74\u7684\u903e50%\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p4\">\u79c1\u8425\u673a\u6784\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4ecd\u7136\u5206\u6b67\uff1aGoldman Sachs \u53ca Barclays \u5df2\u4e0b\u8c03\u8870\u9000\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u800c S&amp;P Global \u53ca The Conference Board \u5219\u7ee7\u7eed\u8b66\u544a2026\u5e74\u521d\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6536\u7f29\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p2\">\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5f53\u524d\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6311\u6218\uff0c\u5728\u4e8e\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u9632\u6b62\u901a\u80c0\u53cd\u5f39\u4e0e\u907f\u514d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6ede\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u7cbe\u51c6\u628a\u63e1\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u7684\u9ec4\u91d1\u65f6\u673a\u3002\u5728\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\u4ecd\u5177\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u6e29\u548c\u7684\u964d\u606f\u4e3e\u63aa\uff0c\u4ea6\u80fd\u4e3a\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u3001\u501f\u6b3e\u4eba\u53ca\u6574\u4f53\u8d44\u672c\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u5b9e\u8d28\u6027\u7684\u5598\u606f\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e0e\u6d41\u52a8\u6027\u7ebe\u89e3\u3002<\/p>\n<h4><\/h4>\n<h4 class=\"p3\"><strong>\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u5e02\u573a\uff1a\u91ca\u653e\u538b\u6291\u5df2\u4e45\u7684\u7f6e\u4e1a\u9700\u6c42<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p 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Mac\u8d44\u6599\uff0c\u622a\u81f37\u670831\u65e5\uff0c30\u5e74\u671f\u5b9a\u606f\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u5e73\u5747\u4e3a6.72%\uff0c\u8f832023\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd18%\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u5bf9\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4ecd\u7136\u504f\u9ad8\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u82e5\u8054\u50a8\u5c40\u5728\u5e74\u5e95\u524d\u51cf\u606f\u4e00\u6b21\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u671f\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u6216\u4e8e2026\u5e74\u5e74\u4e2d\u56de\u843d\u81f35.75%\u20136.25%\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/li>\n<li class=\"p3\">\u6309\u63ed\u5229\u7387\u6bcf\u4e0b\u964d100\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u4f4f\u623f\u53ef\u8d1f\u62c5\u6027\u7ea6\u53ef\u63d0\u9ad810%\uff0c\u6269\u5927\u7b26\u5408\u8d44\u683c\u4e70\u5bb6\u7684\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u5728\u4e0d\u5c11\u5e02\u573a\u4ee4\u6bcf\u6708\u4f9b\u6b3e\u51cf\u5c11\u6570\u767e\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n<li 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class=\"p6\">\u63d0\u5347\u4f4f\u5b85\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u610f\u6b32<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p8\">\u7b56\u7565\u6027\u571f\u5730\u5e03\u5c40\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u6b63\u5728\u6253\u5f00\u3002\u5728\u548c\u987f\u73af\u7403\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u7ee7\u7eed\u805a\u7126\u957f\u671f\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eba\u53e3\u7ed3\u6784\u5e26\u52a8\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3001\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u4f4f\u623f\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f6e\u4e1a\u957f\u671f\u7d2f\u79ef\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u3002\u968f\u8457\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u7ebe\u7f13\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe12025\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u6216\u4f1a\u4e3a\u4f4f\u623f\u53ca\u571f\u5730\u6295\u8d44\u5e02\u573a\u5e26\u6765\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"p2\">\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff1a Federal Reserve Board (FOMC Meeting Statements, March 2020 \u2013 July 2025) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Q1 2025 GDP Report | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 2025 Employment Summary | Freddie Mac PMMS Data, July 2025 | John Burns Research &amp; Consulting, Mortgage Affordability Tracker | National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), HMI Survey \u2013 July 2025 | CoreLogic Land Price Index, 2020\u20132024 | MSCI Real Assets Quarterly Trends Report, 2025 | The Conference Board, Leading Economic Index, June 2025 | Goldman Sachs &amp; Barclays U.S. Outlooks, June 2025 | U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates, July 2025 | Preqin &amp; NCREIF Institutional Allocations to Real Assets \u2013 Midyear 2025 | Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Housing Supply Report 2024 | Realtor.com | Housing Supply Gap Reaches Nearly 4 Million in 2024<\/p>\n<p 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