{"id":243216,"date":"2025-06-01T22:30:26","date_gmt":"2025-06-02T05:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/walton.com\/?p=243216"},"modified":"2026-10-23T00:10:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T07:10:10","slug":"what-impact-does-a-u-s-recession-have-on-land-housing-long-term-real-estate-investments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/walton.com\/jp\/what-impact-does-a-u-s-recession-have-on-land-housing-long-term-real-estate-investments\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306f\u3001\u571f\u5730\u30fb\u4f4f\u5b85\u30fb\u9577\u671f\u4e0d\u52d5\u7523\u6295\u8cc7\u306b\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"p1\">\u7d4c\u6e08\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3059\u308b\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u898b\u901a\u3057\u306f\u5206\u304b\u308c\u308b<\/p>\n<p>2025\u5e74\u534a\u3070\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u7d4c\u6e08\u304c\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u6307\u6458\u3059\u308b\u30a8\u30b3\u30ce\u30df\u30b9\u30c8\u3084\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u5897\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u9006\u30a4\u30fc\u30eb\u30c9\u3001\u878d\u8cc7\u74b0\u5883\u306e\u53b3\u683c\u5316\u3001\u6839\u5f37\u3044\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u5727\u529b\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u61f8\u5ff5\u306f\u4e00\u6bb5\u3068\u5f37\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7d4c\u6e08\u6d3b\u52d5\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u8907\u5408\u6307\u6a19\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5e83\u304f\u6ce8\u76ee\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5168\u7c73\u7523\u696d\u5be9\u8b70\u4f1a\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u5148\u884c\u6307\u6570\uff08LEI\uff09\u306f4\u6708\u307e\u30675\u304b\u6708\u9023\u7d9a\u3067\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b\u666f\u6c17\u60aa\u5316\u3092\u793a\u3059\u4fe1\u983c\u6027\u306e\u9ad8\u3044\u6307\u6a19\u3068\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u540c\u6642\u306b\u3001\u7c73\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u5236\u5ea6\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff08Federal Reserve\uff09\u304c\u91d1\u5229\u3092\u9577\u671f\u9593\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u7dad\u6301\u3059\u308b\u65b9\u91dd\u306f\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5fc3\u7406\u3068\u4f01\u696d\u5fc3\u7406\u306e\u53cc\u65b9\u306b\u5f15\u304d\u7d9a\u304d\u91cd\u304f\u306e\u3057\u304b\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u666f\u6c17\u6e1b\u901f\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u88cf\u4ed8\u3051\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u307b\u304b\u306b\u3082\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u793e\u50b5\u306e\u4fe1\u7528\u30b9\u30d7\u30ec\u30c3\u30c9\u304c\u62e1\u5927\u3057\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u56de\u907f\u59ff\u52e2\u304c\u5f37\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan\u306e\u8abf\u67fb\u306b\u3088\u308b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u983c\u611f\u306f\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>GDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u306f\u30012024\u5e74\u7b2c4\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306e2.4%\u304b\u30892025\u5e74\u7b2c1\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306b\u306f0.8%\u3078\u920d\u5316\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306e\u5207\u8feb\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u308f\u3051\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u3088\u308a\u697d\u89b3\u7684\u306a\u898b\u901a\u3057\u3092\u793a\u3059\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3084\u6a5f\u95a2\u3082\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u9280\u884c\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u78ba\u7387\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\uff0810\u5e74\u7269\u30683\u304b\u6708\u7269\u306e\u7c73\u56fd\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u5dee\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u304f\uff09\u3067\u306f\u30012026\u5e74\u521d\u3081\u307e\u3067\u306b\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u309230%\u5f31\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs\u306f\u3001\u8cbf\u6613\u95a2\u4fc2\u306e\u6539\u5584\u3068\u7c73\u4e2d\u9593\u306e\u4e00\u6642\u7684\u306a\u95a2\u7a0e\u4f11\u6226\u3092\u7406\u7531\u306b\u3001\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u309245%\u304b\u308930%\u3078\u5f15\u304d\u4e0b\u3052\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u540c\u793e\u306f\u73fe\u5728\u30012025\u5e74\u306eGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3092\u7d041%\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3001\u65e9\u3051\u308c\u307012\u6708\u306b\u3082\u7c73\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u5236\u5ea6\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\u304c\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3092\u958b\u59cb\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u307f\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Barclays\u306f\u3055\u3089\u306b\u5f37\u6c17\u3067\u3001\u8cbf\u6613\u5408\u610f\u5f8c\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306f\u300c\u3082\u306f\u3084\u8d77\u3053\u308a\u305d\u3046\u306b\u306a\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u30022025\u5e74\u306eGDP\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u6210\u9577\u304b\u30890.5%\u6210\u9577\u3078\u6539\u5b9a\u3057\u30012026\u5e74\u306b\u306f1.6%\u6210\u9577\u3078\u52a0\u901f\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u30a2\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30bf\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u9280\u884c\u306eGDPNow\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u30012025\u5e74\u7b2c2\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306e\u5b9f\u8ceaGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u30923.5%\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u53c2\u8003\u307e\u3067\u306b\u3001\u56db\u534a\u671f\u6210\u9577\u73872\uff5e3%\u306f\u4e00\u822c\u306b\u300c\u9069\u6e29\u7d4c\u6e08\u300d\u3068\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002\u666f\u6c17\u62e1\u5927\u3092\u793a\u3059\u306b\u306f\u5341\u5206\u5f37\u3044\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u904e\u71b1\u3092\u62db\u304f\u307b\u3069\u9ad8\u304f\u306a\u3044\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u898b\u901a\u3057\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u306f\u3044\u3048\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u306f\u6b8b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u9ad8\u6b62\u307e\u308a\u3059\u308b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3001\u95a2\u7a0e\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u306e\u9577\u671f\u5316\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u306e\u5f31\u307e\u308a\u3001\u4f9b\u7d66\u7db2\u306e\u6df7\u4e71\u306e\u7d99\u7d9a\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u6570\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306b\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u3078\u9665\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3059\u308b\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u3082\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><strong>\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u304c\u7d4c\u6e08\u5168\u4f53\u306b\u53ca\u307c\u3059\u5f71\u97ff<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u306f\u3001\u56fd\u5185\u7dcf\u751f\u7523\uff08GDP\uff09\u304c\u6e1b\u5c11\u3059\u308b\u671f\u9593\u3068\u516c\u5f0f\u306b\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002GDP\u306f\u7c73\u56fd\u7d4c\u6e08\u306e\u5065\u5168\u6027\u3092\u6700\u3082\u5e83\u304f\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u3059\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u306a\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u3067\u306f\u3001\u9271\u5de5\u696d\u751f\u7523\u3001\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u3001\u4f01\u696d\u6295\u8cc7\u304c\u920d\u5316\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5efa\u8a2d\u3084\u4f4f\u5b85\u5bb6\u5177\u306a\u3069\u4f4f\u5b85\u95a2\u9023\u5206\u91ce\u306e\u6d3b\u52d5\u306f\u4e00\u6642\u7684\u306b\u843d\u3061\u8fbc\u3080\u3053\u3068\u304c\u591a\u3044\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u8cc3\u8cb8\u4f4f\u5b85\u306e\u9700\u8981\u306f\u901a\u5e38\u3001\u5b89\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u304b\u5897\u52a0\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u307f\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>GDP\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u7e2e\u5c0f\u7387\u306f\u7d042.5%\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>2008\u5e74\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3067\u306f\u30016\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308aGDP\u304c4.3%\u8d85\u6e1b\u5c11\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>2020\u5e74\u306e\u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u3088\u308b\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u3067\u306f\u3001\u7b2c2\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306eGDP\u304c\u5e74\u7387\u63db\u7b97\u30679.1%\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3057\u305f\u5f8c\u3001\u6025\u901f\u306b\u56de\u5fa9\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2025\u5e746\u6708\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u3001\u7b2c2\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306eGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u4e88\u6e2c\u306f\u5206\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u524d\u8ff0\u306e\u3068\u304a\u308a\u3001\u30a2\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30bf\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u9280\u884c\u306eGDPNow\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u5e95\u5805\u3044\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u3068\u6c11\u9593\u6295\u8cc7\u3092\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u3001\u5e74\u73873.5%\u306e\u529b\u5f37\u3044\u6210\u9577\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u30d5\u30a3\u30e9\u30c7\u30eb\u30d5\u30a3\u30a2\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u9280\u884c\u306e\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u4e88\u6e2c\u8abf\u67fb\u306f\u3001\u52b4\u50cd\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u8edf\u5316\u3068\u5bb6\u8a08\u6d88\u8cbb\u306e\u6e1b\u5c11\u3092\u7406\u7531\u306b\u3001\u7b2c2\u56db\u534a\u671f\u30921.5%\u3001\u901a\u5e74\u30921.4%\u306e\u6210\u9577\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<li>S&amp;P Global 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